Microhoo. An Advertiser's Perspective.... we like a strong #2.

It's very interesting to me that 9 months after when rumors of the deal surfaced we actually have a deal AND it's the start of the new year. Good to yah Microsoft exec team. Thank you for stepping up to the plate and doing something about your search share woes.

Something drastic needed to be done while Google continued to extend their overwhelming share (~60%). If #2 Yahoo (~20%) and #3 MSN (~7%) were to make any run on their their own, it would have been a very LONG road by way of infinitesimally small gains. Not meaningful to them and certainly not meaningful to advertisers.

Integration aside (big, nasty, and hairy), I welcome this deal as an advertiser. PPC advertisers for the most part are beholden to Google's supply of goods (traffic, revenue) and what company wants to have one supplier. It's just not smart business.

The new Microhoo as I've dubbed the new company presents not a formidable competitor to Google but one with a fighting chance. All online advertisers should want to diversify their spend away from Google so that they aren't only drinking from the milk of Google. It can certainly be painful you when Google decides to, for whatever reason, shut down your campaigns. And then, that milk tastes pretty bad.

I think a lot of people have not paid attention to anyone outside of Google simply because they were irrelevant. Microhoo has now by way of math 1+1=2 (not saying 3 yet) become more relevant to advertisers. Relevance is good for your customers.

This merger and acquisition, however, needs more than relevance. Ultimately, the new company needs to create/reshape a search product, experience that rivals Google's (easier said than done) AND for advertisers, create a meaningful level of traffic that will deliver on their marketing dollars (i.e. ROI, conversions).

Microhoo. A Microsoft and Yahoo Combination

The press caught early wind of more talks between the #2 and #3 players in search, Yahoo and Microsoft/MSN, respectively.

As a result, Yahoo shares surged 18% from $28 to $33 at the opening bell. It was the big news story on CNBC this morning. $50 billion has been thrown out there as a purchase price which to me sounds a bit rich based on today's current valuation and based on Yahoo management's most recent performance outlook.

I am guessing this deal will not happen ... setting financing aside, I think there's pretty huge integration risk. Yahoo is not the dinky startup with 10-15 employees that Microsoft typically absorbs into its amoeba-ish structure. The consumption of Yahoo seems simply way too big for Microsoft's stomach.

A key question ... do the potential synergies (likelihood of increased market share) created from the combined search orgs overcome the integration risk? What I am saying is that after you risk-adjust those synergies, are they still there?

I'm no post merger integration expert by any means but the task just seems too daunting. Too many things can go wrong - talent exodus, differing technology platforms, culture, misaligned strategies, et al.

Will be interesting to see what falls out in the next few weeks.

Update: 4 pm PST 4/4/07. It appears the WSJ has confirmed no substantial talks are taking place regarding the takeover.